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　[Special Research: The theory and practice of "Demand Side Management"]

The Central Economic Work Conference in 2020 proposed that "we must twist the main line of structural reform of the supply side，Pay attention to demand side management，Open the blocked point，Make up shortcomings，penetrating production、allocation、circulation、Consumption in various links，Demand traction supply、higher levels of dynamic balance of supply creation demand，Improve the overall efficiency of the national economic system "。Build a new development pattern，Both the supply side must be exerted，It is also necessary to start from the needs。Pay attention to demand side management，It is necessary，While effectively expanding investment demand while paying more attention to expanding consumer demand，Focusing on the blocking point，Unblocked loop，Improve the overall efficiency of the national economic system。

1. Pay attention to "demand -side management"，Combining short -term policy with long -term system construction

Build a new development pattern based on a foothold，Pay attention to demand side management，It is mainly for structural problems that restrict the release of domestic demand potential，Taking the construction of institutional mechanisms and related policies as the main way，Open the block and obstruction that affects the cycle of the national economic cycle，Effectively release domestic demand potential，Realize a higher level of supply and demand dynamic balance。Demand side management here，No longer only focused on the adverse cycle adjustment，Taking short -term macro policy as a tool，Regulate the total demand，Tiring the economic cycle，Instead, pay more attention to improving the institutional mechanism，More effective excavation of domestic demand potential，Stimulate potential consumption and investment demand，Long -term mechanism to form a long -term expansion of domestic demand，Enhance the vitality of economic development。

From the experience of dealing with the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the 2008 international financial crisis，Mainly implementing domestic demand strategies through short -term macro policies。After the Asian financial crisis，External demand shrinks sharply，my country insists that RMB will not depreciate，Simultaneous expansion of domestic demand strategy，Practice active fiscal policy，Issuing long -term construction of national debt，Strengthen infrastructure construction，sky bet online sports betting Turn the momentum to reverse the rapid decline in investment，Anti -sketch needs to be reduced。The international financial crisis has a huge impact on my country's economy，External demand shrinks sharply，Exit and industrial production fell sharply，Employment pressure increases significantly。my country's proposed active fiscal policy and moderate loose monetary policy，New 4 trillion yuan investment in two years，and start the ten major industrial rejuvenation plan，Take home appliances to the countryside at the same time to expand consumer demand。

In the process of dealing with external shocks two times，Short -term macro policies have produced an important role in expanding domestic demand and alleviating downward pressure of the economy。But only rely on short -term policy adjustments，It is difficult to form a long -term mechanism that expands domestic demand，It will also bring pressure on the digestion of later policy。For example，Promote industrial investment through short -term policy，While curbing the industrial decline，It will also increase the pressure of excess capacity in the later stage，Tax preferential policies to encourage car consumption，While stimulating the current consumption，It will also overdraw later consumption。More important，With the changes in the development stage and conditions，Relying on the construction of infrastructure by relying on a large scale of financial investment，Not only the marginal efficiency of investment will decrease，It will also increase the scale and potential risks of local government debt。Visible，Pay attention to demand side management，We must pay attention to the role of short -term policy regulation，Pay more attention to improving the system and mechanism，Strengthening system construction，Combining short -term policy adjustment with the construction of the medium and long -term system，Sustainable motivation to release the potential of domestic demand。

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China，The Party Central Committee made a judgment of my country's economic development into a new normal，Promoting a major strategy to promote the supply -side structural reform，According to "Three, one, one drop, one supplement" and "consolidation、Enhancement、Promotion、Unblocked Police Promoting and Deepening Supply -side Structural Reform，Effectively improved supply and demand relationship。Sudden new crown pneumonia's epidemic has a huge impact on my country's economy。my country's coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and sky bet online casino social development，The first to realize the economic "V" type rebound。Facing the changes in the external environment and domestic development conditions，my country's proposal to build a large domestic cycle as the main body、New development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles，Adhere to deepening the supply -side structural reform as the main line，At the same time, pay attention to demand -side management，Emphasize insisting on expanding the strategic base point of domestic demand，Do not engage in large water irrigation，Moderate scale policy relieves downward pressure at the same time，Reasonable guidance of consumption、Savings、Investment and other aspects of effective institutional arrangements，Promote the formation of long -term mechanisms to expand domestic demand from the level of system construction。Therefore，Pay attention to demand side management，It is necessary to focus on building a new development pattern，On the basis of adhering to the main line of supply -side structural reforms，Building through improvement of institutional mechanism and system，Continuous and effectively release domestic demand potential，Demand traction supply、higher levels of dynamic balance of supply creation demand。

　2. "Demand Management" attaches more importance to expanding consumer demand

In the past period，my country's demand -side management mainly focuses on adjusting investment demand，By guiding local governments and enterprises to expand investment，Formed a relatively effective investment regulatory system，But the regulation methods for expanding consumer demand are relatively limited。With the changes in my country's demand structure，Relying on the space to expand investment to drive economic growth is significantly narrowed。Since 2015，The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is stable at about 60%，2018 and 2019 are 65.9%and 57.8%，The contribution rate of the total amount of capital formation is 24.4 and 26.6 percentage points higher than the capital.，The dependence of the economy has decreased significantly，The characteristics of shifting from investment drivers to consumer drivers are more obvious，Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth。

Since 2020，my country's epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are at the forefront of the world。But economic recovery is still unbalance，Demand recovery lags behind supply，Consumption recovery lags behind investment。11 months before 2020，The total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 4.8%year sky bet online casino -on -year，Fixed asset investment cumulative increased by 2.6%year -on -year，Consumption growth rate is 7.4 percentage points lower than the investment growth rate。This situation appears，The impact factors of the epidemic，There are also multiple deep -seated reasons。

First，Epidemic suppress consumption tendency and future expectations。The influence of the income growth brought by the impact of the impact of the epidemic，The consumption tendency of residents has decreased significantly，The per capita disposable income of the nation's residents in the first three quarters of 2020 actually increased by 0.6%year -on -year，and the per capita consumption expenditure of residents decreased by 6.6%year -on -year。In the case of slowing income growth，Resident savings deposits in the first three quarters of 2020 increased by nearly 10 trillion yuan，It is obviously higher than the average of 6.2 trillion yuan in deposits in the past three years in the past three years。Reasons for the reason，Except for the increase in passive savings caused by the service consumption that has not fully recovered，It is mainly the result of the increase in preventive savings。

Second，The level of residential liabilities rises and squeeze out consumption。In recent years，The rapid growth of personal housing loans of residents。In the first half of 2020，The balance of home purchase loans increased by 15.7%year -on -year，The level of liabilities of the residential department continues to rise。The level of liabilities of the residential department rises，Often fell with the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods，For the final consumption will form an extrusion effect。

Consumption recovery lag，It will eventually be transmitted to production and investment，Affecting economic stability recovery。Consumption recovery lags behind production recovery，Inventory will increase，Corporate revenue will also be affected。Increased uncertainty in external demand、Investment is still restricted by the restoration of manufacturing and private investment，Promoting economic stability recovery，Pay more attention to expanding consumption。

In recent years, my country's consumer structure upgrade has shown a series of new trends，It is becoming an important force to promote consumption。First, the high -end consumption of goods。Residents' consumption from the satisfaction of the point of attention to the improvement of the pursuit，For product quality、Quality、The demand for the brand is increasing，Sky bet online sports betting APP download Fashion、Quality、Energy -saving、Intelligent and other upgraded products are welcomed by the market。Second is consumer structure service。The consumption structure dominated by physical consumption is increasingly shifting to the consumer structure dominated by service consumption。Per capita service expenditure of residents in 2019 accounted for 45.9%of the per capita consumption expenditure of residents across the country。Communication service、Volkswagen Catering、Education and training、Leisure Travel、Education and training、Health and health services are becoming a new hot spot for consumption。Third, consumer mode network。With the rapid increase of the popularization rate of mobile payment，Online retail integration into the life of residents，The scale of online consumption continues to expand。11 months before 2020，National online retail sales increased by 15.7%，The proportion of the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 25%。Fourth is the youth of the consumer group。my country's "post -90s" and "post -00s" new generation of consumer groups，The era of rapid development of the Internet，Their consumption concept and consumption model is different from the previous generation，Compared to the price，They value quality and cost performance more，Pursue fashion and brand，Happy to try new things，The main force of becoming a new type of consumption。Fifth is the integration of urban and rural markets。With the expansion of Internet technology and network coverage，In particular, the state's support for network construction in rural areas increases，Online retail continues to sink to the countryside，Improving the consumer environment in rural areas。Rural market and urban market more effective connection，High -quality agricultural products entering thousands of households through online sales，An important factor in becoming consumer growth。

Expand consumption，To adapt to the new trend of consumer change and structure upgrade，Improve traditional consumption，Cultivate new consumption，Development service consumption，Leading supply innovation with consumption upgrade、To increase the new growth point of consumption，Continuous enhancement of the cycle of social reinforcement，Realize a higher level of supply and demand dynamic balance。

　3. "Demand Side Management" must focus on opening the blocking point and unblocked cycle

in production、allocation、circulation、Consumption's economic cycle，Consumption is the end point and a new starting point，It is an important starting Sky bet sports betting APP point for promoting domestic and international dual cycles，It also accelerates the release of domestic demand、The focus point of enhancing the motivation of economic development。In 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods in my country reached 41.2 trillion yuan，about $ 6 trillion，The scale close to US $ 6.2 trillion，2020 will surpass the United States to become the world's largest retail market，The super large -scale market advantages will be further displayed。Strengthen demand -side management，focus on taking effective measures，Open the blocked point，In reasonable guidance of consumption、Savings、Investment and other aspects of effective institutional arrangements，Forms a strong domestic market，Provide important support for the construction of a new development pattern。

First，Increase the adjustment of income distribution。Focus on the proportion of residents' income in the distribution of national income，The proportion of increasing labor remuneration in the initial distribution。Adjust the minimum wage standard in time，Efforts to increase low -income group income。Improve the policy system according to the factor，Improve the mechanism of the market determined by the market，Explore the right to use through land and other elements、Increase income of income rights to income low -income group income。Perfect the re -distribution mechanism，Increase taxes、Social Security、Transfer payment and other regulation accuracy，Promoting income increase in urban and rural residents，Reduce income distribution gap。

2，Improve the social security system。Improve the overall planning urban and rural、Sustainable basic pension insurance system、Basic Medical Insurance System，steadily improve the level of protection。Implementing the central adjustment system of the basic endowment insurance fund of enterprise employees，Gradually realize the nationwide coordination of endowment insurance。Increase the transfer of some state -owned capital returns to enrich the social security fund。Improve the unified medical insurance and major illness insurance system for urban and rural residents，Accelerate the implementation of the medical settlement system。Simplified social security participation、Transfer、Pinning and waiting for procedures，Accelerate the full coverage of social security。

Third，Expand the middle income group。The middle income group is buying a house and buying a car、Education Medical、Leisure Tourism and other mid -to -high -end goods and service consumption main forces，is the backbone of the upgrade of the consumption structure，It has a strong supporting sky bet online casino effect on expanding consumption。It must further expand the middle income group，Make it the main force to expand consumption。

Fourth，Accelerate the citizen of agricultural transfer population。my country's 290 million migrant workers have accounted for nearly 70%of the total population of 420 million urban and towns，But the migrant workers enter the city and settle in a lot of thresholds。Studies indicate，If migrant workers consume in accordance with urban residents，Per capita consumption expenditure will increase by 27%。For this，The reform of the household registration system should be accelerated，Accelerate the full coverage of basic public services，Accelerate the citizen of agricultural transfer population，to release huge consumption potential。

Fifth，Adhere to the policy of "housing and not frying"。Accelerate the establishment of multiple main supply、Multi -channel guarantee、The housing system for rent and purchase，Improve long -term rental policy，Reform housing provident fund system，Promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market。Strengthen the supervision of the real estate market，Strict control of credit funds flowing to the real estate market，Reduce high housing prices and residents' high leverage for consumption extrusion effects。

Sixth，Encourage the development of new consumption。Accelerate the cultivation of online retail、Online Education、New Consumer Consumption Model New Mode of Internet Medicine，Promoting the expansion of new consumption capacity。Conform to the trend of new consumption development，Accelerate the introduction of e -commerce、Related supporting rules and regulations in the field of sharing economy，Improve the consumer rights protection system，Build a good consumer environment。

Seventh，Encourage expanded effective investment。Continue to advance a batch of strong foundations、Increasing function、Construction of major projects for long -term benefits，Promote the digitalization of enterprises、Intelligent transformation and device update。Problems to solve low return on social investment，Efforts to improve investment efficiency，Encourage expansion of private investment，Stimulate private investment vitality，Guide social capital to participate in the construction of new infrastructure and new urbanization construction，Form the market -led investment endogenous growth mechanism。

(Author: Wang Yiming，Deputy Chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center、Former Sky bet sports betting APP Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council)

Editor in charge: He Shan